Project without external funding

Development of feedback mechanisms for energy policies to guarantee a sustainable and robust investment growth in wind and solar power


Abstract

Increasing the role of wind and solar energy in the power supply system is now a crucial and pressing matter. System
control theory, and particularly feedback control, can contribute to the design
of policies that achieve sustainable and robust integration of wind and solar
power while minimizing the effect on the economy.

The government sets the targets for
renewable investment (2,500 MW/year of the solar PV installation, for example)
and employs the price mechanisms (feed-in tariff, for example) to drive the
investment markets to achieve that aim. The investment decisions - yes or no,
when, and how much - are made by investors. We know that most of the investors
make the decisions with the expectation of profitability (internal rate of
return). Profitability depends on not only the cost but also the electricity
price, which can be oriented by the government under FIT, auction mechanism, or
indirectly through the CO2 price mechanism. Thus, the government can adopt regulations
to influence investment activities. However, setting an appropriate price
mechanism is not easy. On the one hand, it is a tough task to predict the
changes in the costs of wind turbines and solar panels accurately. In contrast,
understanding the investors, guessing their behavior are challenges.
Consequently, making the regulations based on “prediction” and “guess” does not
ensure to achieve the investment target. If the FIT is too high, the investors
attain high-profit margins, and the surcharge, which is shouldered by the
majority of private consumers.

In this research, an innovative method of
investment control is studied and developed, which minimizes the difference
between the targeted and real installed capacity based on feedback information
of “real investment” instead of “prediction numbers.” In the feedback control
system, corresponding to the capital investment is the real installed capacity,
which will be fed back to see if the targeted volume of investment is
satisfied. The main aim of this research is “developing mathematical shapes for
regulations, mainly focusing on the architecture of control systems which
guarantee sustainable and robust development of wind and solar power.” 



Principal Investigator

Last updated on 2020-06-03 at 15:58