Journal article
Priorities for developing a modelling and scenario analysis framework for waterborne pathogen concentrations in rivers worldwide and consequent burden of disease

Publication Details
Hofstra, N.; Vermeulen, L.; Derx, J.; Flörke, M.; Mateo-Sagasta, J.; Rose, J.; Medema, G.
Publication year:
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
Pages range:
Volume number:


Diarrhoea caused by waterborne pathogens still has a large burden of
disease. We introduce a modelling and scenario analysis framework that
enables better understanding of sources of and possible future changes
in the disease burden due to environmental change and management
implementation. The state-of-the-art research that can contribute to the
development of the framework at the large scale is analysed, together
with research gaps and opportunities for future research. Priorities
have been identified and these include implementation of Quantitative
Microbial Risk Assessment and application of the models in scenario
analyses. The credibility of the model outputs should be central in the
analysis, for example by developing stochastic models. Implementation of
the framework contributes towards achieving the Sustainable Development


Last updated on 2021-04-05 at 16:34